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Seasonality : Systems, Strategies, and Signals
By: Jake, Bernstein,

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Item #: 8439
Pages: 240
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471168114
Type: Book - Hard Cover
Publish Date : 4/8/1998
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Synopsis:
Well known author and trader Jake Bernstein shows how to use seasonal patterns to time the market and how to formulate a seasonal trading program. Knowing and using seasonal influences in the markets gives traders a real edge - but it requires the insights and skill Bernstein's been known for over the years.

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Jacket Description:
Seasonality Is there a "holy grail" of price prediction? Traders have long been in pursuit of one, and while a handful of strategies, techniques, and methodologies have proven noteworthy, the search continues for the ultimate forecasting instrument—if one does indeed exist. The theory and methods of seasonality may well prove to be a step in the right direction to this goal. In this unique new book, a leading seasonal trading analyst examines seasonality in-depth, elucidating the concise principles, numerous advantages, and enormous potential that make it one of the most important—and effective—methods currently available for targeting futures price trends. Over the years, considerable attention has been paid to the effects of interest rates, money supply, earnings, inflation, and other key factors on stock and commodity prices. Yet, the immense impact of seasonal price tendencies has been either grossly underestimated or completely ignored. Often overlooked, but equally significant, seasonality is based on the assumption that seasonal influences cause biases in the movement of market prices. Among its many advantages, seasonality allows the trader to formulate objective decisions founded on a logical, verifiable, and operational methodology, creating a backdrop of probable market trends in most time frames and in most markets, and providing historically valid input for use as an adjunct to other analytical methods and timing indicators. The essence of seasonality is found in its lengthy history and statistically testable methodologies. However, seasonal correlations are not 100 percent foolproof. Using seasonal data to time the market involves an unavoidable degree of subjectivity—unless you have a firm grasp of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Now, in the first resource devoted exclusively to the subject, Jake Bernstein gives you the foundation necessary to implement this powerful tool effectively and with confidence. Balancing theory and practice, Bernstein provides a thorough, real-world understanding of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Along with results of his own extensive research, he integrates the work of numerous market analysts, such as W. D. Gann, Art Merrill, Burton Pugh, Samuel Benner, and Yale Hirsch, among others, to create a pragmatic and highly functional analytical framework. With his accessible, comprehensive coverage of significant concepts such as seasonal spread relationships, key dates, and cash tendencies, you’ll be able to discern seasonal patterns in monthly and daily cash and futures data. Once the basics are firmly in place, Bernstein leads you step by step through the essential process of formulating a seasonal trading program that incorporates important timing strategies and risk management tools. An ideal overview for any trader, investor, or analyst, this lucidly written and clearly organized resource emphasizes the validity and significance of seasonality. Jake Bernstein has compiled a comprehensive guide to the effective use of seasonal concepts and methods in the futures markets. This is a major work that belongs on the shelves of all serious traders.

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Table of Contents:
Seasonality, Price History and Humankind.

An Overview of Seasonal Research.

Seasonal Price Patterns in Cash Market Data.

Seasonal Price Patterns in Weekly Futures Market Data.

Seasonal Spread Relationships.

Daily Seasonal Price Tendencies.

Critical Seasonal Month Concept.

Key Date Seasonals.

An Overview of Seasonal Trading Systems, Methods, and Concepts.

Combining Seasonality with Timing.

Conclusions and Suggestions for Further Research.

Appendices.

Index.

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