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Synopsis:
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis is a breakthrough book in that it rigorously applies the scientific method and recently developed methods of statistical inference to determine the effectiveness of technical analysis in forecasting markets and providing profitable trading signals. Technical analysis – as it is practiced today – has more similarities with a faith-based folk art than a scientifically-based practice, the author asserts. To move technical analysis forward, the author proposes a new type of technical analysis, which he calls: evidence-based technical analysis. EBTA differs from traditional technical analysis in that it is restricted to objective technical methods which can be historically tested and then subjects those results to rigorous statistical scrutiny to produce evidence of a trading method's profitability. The author provides a new statistical methodology for testing technical systems and rule based investment strategies. Most importantly, the author tests over 4000 trading rules to determine which signals/rules generate profitable signals and which do not. For technical analysts and traders, the book is a wake-up call to abandon subjective, interpretive methods and embrace an approach that is scientifically and statistically valid. For other traders, the rigorous testing of trading signals/rules may stimulate them to develop new systems utilizing the best-performing signals and rules.

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